31 SE Park Cir #3

Fort Walton Beach, FL 32548

$139,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 236 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,482/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-471/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-471/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (5.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#111 in FL, #1,628 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $139k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 0.9% in Fort Walton Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.