5045 N Cranberry Blvd

North Port, FL 34286

$378,700D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,330 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,503/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,986
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-235/mo
• Annual: $-2,818/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $106,036

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (33.9% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lamarque Elementary School (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,073 students, 68% FRL); Woodland Middle School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 978 students, 55% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 42% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.