17110 Swift Bluff Ct

Colonial Heights, VA 23834

$115,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,871/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $732/mo
• Annual: $8,778/yr
• Cap rate: 13.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.26%
• DSCR: 2.21
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $732 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#146 in VA, #4,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, crime F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $115k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 36% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.2% in Colonial Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.