5015 4th Ave

New York, NY 11220

$1,688,000D

3 bd · 8.0 ba · 7,360 sqft · Built 1921 · MultiFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,684/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,852
• Tax + insurance: −$2,386
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,244
• Net cashflow: $-2,798/mo
• Annual: $-33,574/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $472,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/8.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.69M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.19M (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.07M (36.7% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.59M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.07M (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $107k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $95k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $875k; list at $1.69M implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$171k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $10,684/mo this rent would consume 183% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 6563% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?