109 Elm St

Hagan, GA 30417

$158,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$833
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $201/mo
• Annual: $2,408/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $44,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (5.6% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#223 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Evans County (rural): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #153 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 26 units permitted in Evans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Evans County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10493% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $159k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.