10110 Forum West Dr #634

Houston, TX 77036

$29,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 713 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$232
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $105/mo
• Annual: $1,257/yr
• Cap rate: 13.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.30%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 2.90%
• Cash to close: $8,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $29k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($842 rent vs $29k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $27k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $200 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $212 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.6%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?