471 Bluewater Dr

Bluewater, AZ 85344

$124,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Pending · 247 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,014/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $728/mo
• Annual: $8,730/yr
• Cap rate: 13.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.96%
• DSCR: 2.11
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $728 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 9.9% in Bluewater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Deck railings — Worn and need minor touch-up paint.
• Minor: Fence — Some sections appear slightly worn and need touch-up paint.