131 Sidney

San Antonio, TX 78203

$209,900C

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,304 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$714
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-99/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-99/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (0.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,287/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 470% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.