4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,077 sqft ·
Built 2022
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 199 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,861/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,618
Tax + insurance
−$1,010
HOA
−$301
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,441
Net cashflow
$491/mo
Annual
$5,895/yr
Cap rate
7.41%
Cash-on-cash
4.00%
DSCR
1.18
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$193,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $690k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $686k (0.6% below list).
It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($607k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $607k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#746 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $6,861/mo this rent would consume 92% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-68TCF93W3K7Z38
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29