16809 Fm 1797

Lake Cherokee, TX 75691

$83,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,157/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $396/mo
• Annual: $4,746/yr
• Cap rate: 12.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.42%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $23,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($574 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tatum ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #194 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.