3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,876 sqft ·
Built 2022
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,713/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,988
Tax + insurance
−$748
HOA
−$45
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$570
Net cashflow
$-637/mo
Annual
$-7,648/yr
Cap rate
4.28%
Cash-on-cash
-7.21%
DSCR
0.68
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$106,120
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $379k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (29.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (28.4% below list).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $266k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in TX, #4,158 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
Dripping Springs ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 754 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.2% in Dripping Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-69972B5N70XMT4
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29