3640 NW 9th St #401

Miami, FL 33125

$170,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 748 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,985/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$206
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$837
• Net cashflow: $1,706/mo
• Annual: $20,467/yr
• Cap rate: 18.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.00%
• DSCR: 2.91
• 1% rule: 2.34%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kensington Park Elementary School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 922 students, 66% FRL); Citrus Grove Middle School (math 19% / reading 21%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 781 students, 66% FRL); Miami Jackson Senior High School (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #575 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,305 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $170k implies a 305% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,985/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 5223% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.