6267 Johnstone Ct

Burlington, KY 41005

$199,900C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 950 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,986/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $295/mo
• Annual: $3,536/yr
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.7% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $199k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#83 in KY, #2,792 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burlington Elementary School (math 44% / reading 49%, grade D-, #133 of 676 statewide, top 20%, 692 students, 46% FRL); Conner Middle School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade B-, #6 of 217 statewide, top 2%, 896 students, 35% FRL); Conner High School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,443 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $200k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.