24202 Hemlock Circle Plan

Sylvan, MI 48118

$139,995B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 712 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,204/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$547
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $460/mo
• Annual: $5,518/yr
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.68%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $39,199

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 712 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chelsea School District (town): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #59 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 996 units permitted in Washtenaw County in 2024 (492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washtenaw County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 712 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.