187 Old Toll Rd. Rd

Guilford Center, CT 06443

$579,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,034 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
• Tax + insurance: −$815
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $-889/mo
• Annual: $-10,665/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.58%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $162,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $579k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-889 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $422k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (35.2% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($570k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $375k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in CT, #1,186 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Madison School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 153 in CT (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kathleen H. Ryerson Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #99 of 553 statewide, top 19%, 316 students, 2% FRL); Walter C. Polson Middle School (math 71% / reading 72%, grade A, #10 of 175 statewide, top 6%, 520 students, 4% FRL); Daniel Hand High School (math 69% / reading 86%, grade A-, #8 of 194 statewide, top 4%, 828 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 3% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.4% in Guilford Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.