2095 Liberty St

Fairgrove, MI 48733

$154,000C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,310/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $63/mo
• Annual: $754/yr
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($754/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#639 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Akron-Fairgrove Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #464 of 760 in MI (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Tuscola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscola County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $154k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.