2401 - 2415 San Pablo Ave

Oakland, CA 94607

$2,850,000C+

None bd · None ba · 12,418 sqft · Built 2001 · MultiFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $33,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,946
• Tax + insurance: −$4,750
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,990
• Net cashflow: $6,599/mo
• Annual: $79,193/yr
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.92%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $798,000

Investor read

• This is a 13 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $2.85M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($79k/yr) — positive. Per door: $508/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($33k rent vs $2.85M).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.68M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.68M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $20k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $86k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $575k; list at $2.85M implies a 396% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.5% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $33,285/mo this rent would consume 421% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 2002% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.