2415 San Pablo Ave

Oakland, CA 94612

$1,225,000B

None bd · None ba · 6,638 sqft · Built 2007 · MultiFamily · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $14,779/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,424
• Tax + insurance: −$2,042
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,104
• Net cashflow: $3,210/mo
• Annual: $38,517/yr
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.23%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $343,000

Investor read

• This is a multifamily listed at $1.23M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.23M).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.11M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.11M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Oakland Middle (178 students, 99% FRL); Mcclymonds High (281 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 68% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 45 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $1.77M (59%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $575k; list at $1.23M implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $343k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.5% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $14,779/mo this rent would consume 240% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.