36-40 Fox Run Rd

Redding Center, CT 06896

$1,499,000B+

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,548 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,861
• Tax + insurance: −$2,581
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $5,358/mo
• Annual: $64,298/yr
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.32%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $419,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($64k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.50M).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.45M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.45M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 09 (rural): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #7 of 192 in CT (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Joel Barlow High School (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #18 of 194 statewide, top 10%, 768 students, 12% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 82% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Regional School District 09 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $420k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.