4 Watkins Dr

Lufkin, TX 75901

$79,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2011 · Manufactured · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,434/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $661/mo
• Annual: $7,932/yr
• Cap rate: 16.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.86%
• DSCR: 2.60
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Coston El (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 204 students, 97% FRL); Lufkin Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,487 students, 89% FRL); Lufkin H S (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,135 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 68% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.6% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.