4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,953 sqft ·
Built 2006
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 104 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,198/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,673
Tax + insurance
−$294
HOA
−$8
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$462
Net cashflow
$-239/mo
Annual
$-2,864/yr
Cap rate
5.40%
Cash-on-cash
-3.21%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$89,320
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (13.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (31.1% below list).
It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $220k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #4,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
Athens City (town): math 27% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 129 in AL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $258k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Athens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,198/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 811% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6D9E4Q2TQ7PC96
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29