1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
578 sqft ·
Built 1966
· Condo
· Under Contract
· 116 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,722/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,626
Tax + insurance
−$426
HOA
−$371
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$572
Net cashflow
$-272/mo
Annual
$-3,266/yr
Cap rate
5.24%
Cash-on-cash
-3.76%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$86,800
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $310k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (15.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (12.2% below list).
It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $262k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: George Washington Elementary School (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,012 of 1,303 statewide, top 79%, 779 students, 90% FRL); Union Hill Middle School (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 849 students, 91% FRL); Union City High School (math 12% / reading 35%, grade F, #331 of 399 statewide, top 83%, 3,025 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 228 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,722/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 6042% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-6DBQZ408X7V2WC
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29