137 Hickory St

Ashville, PA 16613

$109,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $44/mo
• Annual: $522/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($522/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (13.7% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,364 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Penn Cambria SD (town): math 29% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #304 of 539 in PA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Penn Cambria Intrmd Sch (math 32% / reading 55%, grade F, #866 of 1,518 statewide, top 57%, 211 students, 52% FRL); Penn Cambria Ms (math 18% / reading 59%, grade F, #275 of 512 statewide, top 55%, 468 students, 50% FRL); Penn Cambria Hs (math 67%, 567 students, 28% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.