3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,512 sqft ·
Built 1965
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 145 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,858/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$498
Tax + insurance
−$73
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$390
Net cashflow
$897/mo
Annual
$10,761/yr
Cap rate
17.63%
Cash-on-cash
40.50%
DSCR
2.80
1% rule
1.96%
Cash to close
$26,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $897 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#102 in VA, #3,220 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: South Hill Elementary (math 63% / reading 72%, grade B+, #372 of 1,108 statewide, top 34%, 733 students, 88% FRL); Park View Middle (math 54% / reading 75%); Park View High (math 57% / reading 77%) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 4.6% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29