3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,685 sqft ·
Built 2022
· Townhouse
· Active
· 97 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,868/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,858
Tax + insurance
−$908
HOA
−$164
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$812
Net cashflow
$-874/mo
Annual
$-10,492/yr
Cap rate
4.37%
Cash-on-cash
-6.88%
DSCR
0.69
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$152,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $545k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-874 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $418k (23.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $387k (29.0% below list).
It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($496k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $387k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $26k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#283 in FL, #4,522 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F.
Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Dune Lakes Elementary School (math 74% / reading 68%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 928 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 710 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 0.9% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($146k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6F4WD9DVJW4DYM
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29