1-5 Lowell St

San Francisco, CA 94112

$2,139,500D+

64 bd · None ba · 5,272 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Active · 199 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $21,590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,220
• Tax + insurance: −$3,566
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,534
• Net cashflow: $2,270/mo
• Annual: $27,246/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $599,060

Investor read

• This is a 8 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $2.14M. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive. Per door: $284/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $2.14M).
• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.88M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.88M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $64k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $21,590/mo this rent would consume 192% of the median local household income ($135k/yr) (locally 2108% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: exterior paint — Visible wear and tear