59227 Lewis Ln Ln

New Haven, MI 48048

$70,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,728/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$600
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,380/yr
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.24%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 2.47%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#650 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Haven Community Schools (suburban): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #305 of 540 in MI (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $70k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.1% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.