154-20 132nd Ave

New York, NY 11434

$1,199,000F

12 bd · 9.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,777/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,288
• Tax + insurance: −$1,058
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,633
• Net cashflow: $-1,202/mo
• Annual: $-14,428/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $335,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 6.0-bed/4.5-bath units multifamily listed at $1.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-601/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $987k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $778k (35.1% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $778k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,777/mo this rent would consume 120% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 3168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?