4 Pony Ln

Palm Coast, FL 32164

$399,000D

4 bd · 0.0 ba · 2,278 sqft · Built 2002 · MultiFamily · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $-229/mo
• Annual: $-2,753/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $399k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-115/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $320k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rymfire Elementary School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade C, #872 of 2,144 statewide, top 42%, 892 students, 67% FRL); Buddy Taylor Middle School (math 50% / reading 45%, grade C-, #288 of 571 statewide, top 51%, 1,343 students, 63% FRL); Flagler-Palm Coast High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,523 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1737 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear visible on some cabinet doors.
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Some fixtures show signs of wear.
• Minor: Landscaping — Some areas of the lawn appear overgrown and need trimming.