2816 Red Diamond

Leming, TX 78264

$199,999C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,897 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Pending · 223 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,873/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $73/mo
• Annual: $874/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($874/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.3% below list).
• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,568 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pleasanton ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #470 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasanton El (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 70% FRL); Pleasanton J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 772 students, 66% FRL); Pleasanton H S (math 59% / reading 51%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 944 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Leming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.