2336 Shadowdale Dr

Houston, TX 77043

$147,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,986 sqft · Built 1970 · Townhouse · Pending · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$489
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-253/mo
• Annual: $-3,039/yr
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.38%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $41,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $147k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (28.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westwood El (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 409 students, 93% FRL); Spring Oaks Middle (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 644 students, 91% FRL); Spring Woods H S (math 53% / reading 36%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,113 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Spring Branch ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?