412 Douglas St

Burleson, TX 76028

$215,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,991/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$464
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-221/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-221/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (7.4% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burleson ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #236 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jack Taylor El (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 544 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 32% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Burleson ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 687 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.