11359 Lake Dr

Lake Fenton, MI 48430

$49,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,615/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$795
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $136/mo
• Annual: $1,629/yr
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 3.24%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#183 in MI, #4,770 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lake Fenton Community Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #124 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.4% in Lake Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Driveway — Cracks in concrete