158 Crisfield Ave

Cheektowaga, NY 14206

$189,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,401/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-422/mo
• Annual: $-5,069/yr
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.53%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (39.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (26.2% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $115k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Cheektowaga-Sloan Union Free School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #555 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt School (328 students, 47% FRL); John F Kennedy Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #550 of 729 statewide, top 77%, 279 students, 54% FRL); John F Kennedy Senior High School (math 82% / reading 24%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 370 students, 49% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.