2639 Sanford Ave

Alton, IL 62002

$70,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,086/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $299/mo
• Annual: $3,590/yr
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.31%
• DSCR: 1.81
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#701 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities D-.
• Alton CUSD 11 (suburban): math 12% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #544 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alton High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 1,990 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $58k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 6.4% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.