113 4th St

Lake City, TX 78368

$54,995B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 238 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,230/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $461/mo
• Annual: $5,536/yr
• Cap rate: 16.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.95%
• DSCR: 2.60
• 1% rule: 2.24%
• Cash to close: $15,399

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,180 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mathis El (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 409 students, 88% FRL); Mathis Middle (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 319 students, 86% FRL); Mathis H S (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 434 students, 82% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $55k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.