391 Towamensing Trl

Penn Forest, PA 18210

$259,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,996/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$307
• HOA: −$104
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-193/mo
• Annual: $-2,312/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jim Thorpe Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #394 of 539 in PA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Penn-Kidder Campus (math 18% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,518 statewide, top 73%, 571 students, 62% FRL); Jim Thorpe Area Hs (math 62% / reading 75%, grade B, #53 of 437 statewide, top 13%, 565 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 38% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jim Thorpe Area SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 453 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $259k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.