3813 Morgan St

Steger, IL 60475

$169,873D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,135 sqft · Built 1942 · Other · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,748/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $95/mo
• Annual: $1,134/yr
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $47,564

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#498 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Bloom Twp Hsd 206 (suburban): math 8% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #591 of 620 in IL (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Steger Intermediate Center (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,741 of 2,056 statewide, top 93%, 446 students, 0% FRL); Columbia Central School (math 7% / reading 17%, grade F, #562 of 665 statewide, top 86%, 616 students, 0% FRL); Bloom Trail High School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #511 of 693 statewide, top 75%, 1,227 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $170k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.1% in Steger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.