2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
777 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 10 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,559/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$391
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$327
Net cashflow
$-51/mo
Annual
$-611/yr
Cap rate
5.93%
Cash-on-cash
-1.28%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$47,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-611/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (5.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (8.3% below list).
Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $156k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
Amherst Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #209 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
Current owner paid $64k; list at $170k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6MEY2PDHNGDND4
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29