2510 Lewisburg Pike

Spring Hill, TN 37174

$350,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · Built 2015 · Other · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,153/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-368/mo
• Annual: $-4,420/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (38.5% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#23 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.9%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $223k; list at $350k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.