3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,328 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,715/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$288
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$360
Net cashflow
$228/mo
Annual
$2,736/yr
Cap rate
8.00%
Cash-on-cash
6.11%
DSCR
1.27
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$44,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Highlands Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 475 students, 78% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $64k; list at $160k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6MWJ1RFS9DY0N7
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29