245 Pine Shadow Dr

Goose Creek, SC 29445

$200,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,136 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,880/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $243/mo
• Annual: $2,920/yr
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (6.0% below list).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#103 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Berkeley 01 (suburban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #30 of 80 in SC (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goose Creek Elementary (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #535 of 597 statewide, top 90%, 945 students, 100% FRL); Sedgefield Middle (math 13% / reading 26%, grade F, #182 of 229 statewide, top 80%, 986 students, 100% FRL); Goose Creek High (math 33% / reading 68%, grade D+, #150 of 196 statewide, top 76%, 1,981 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Berkeley 01 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,183 units permitted in Berkeley County in 2024 (580 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berkeley County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $200k implies a 471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Goose Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.