3119 W Willow Knolls Dr Unit 28B

Peoria, IL 61614

$85,000C

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 872 sqft · Built 1977 · Condo · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,086/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$161
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $109/mo
• Annual: $1,313/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Dunlap CUSD 323 (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #28 of 620 in IL (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dunlap High School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C, #24 of 693 statewide, top 3%, 1,375 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.6% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.