1519 E 5th St

Dayton, OH 45403

$289,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,836 sqft · Built 1886 · MultiFamily · Pending · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $391/mo
• Annual: $4,687/yr
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.79%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (1.4% below list).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1886 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 19167% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $289k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,849/mo this rent would consume 89% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1071% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1886 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.