3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
707 sqft ·
Built 1981
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,335/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,154
Tax + insurance
−$334
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$280
Net cashflow
$-433/mo
Annual
$-5,192/yr
Cap rate
3.93%
Cash-on-cash
-8.43%
DSCR
0.62
1% rule
0.61%
Cash to close
$61,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (34.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (39.3% below list).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $133k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#227 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment D+.
United ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #568 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,448 units permitted in Webb County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).
Webb County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6N3B8W0K4F61WW
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29