113 Low Ridge Rd

Williamsburg, VA 23185

$370,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,727 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$363
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-266/mo
• Annual: $-3,193/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $103,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Magruder Elementary (math 68% / reading 78%, grade A, #259 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 663 students, 47% FRL); Queens Lake Middle (math 67% / reading 82%, grade A, #50 of 342 statewide, top 16%, 574 students, 42% FRL); Bruton High (math 62% / reading 87%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 711 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 15% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.