19834 Fm 2556 Rd

Tierra Bonita, TX 78593

$66,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,515/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $775/mo
• Annual: $9,296/yr
• Cap rate: 20.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.30%
• DSCR: 3.24
• 1% rule: 2.30%
• Cash to close: $18,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $775 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($456 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#1,608 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Santa Rosa ISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #760 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rosa H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 289 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.