Nottingham Plan

Eureka, MO 63025

$399,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,940 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 332 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,814
• Tax + insurance: −$894
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$819
• Net cashflow: $-627/mo
• Annual: $-7,529/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.01%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $150,252

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-627 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $352k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#97 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Eureka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.