538 Adelaide St

Carthage, NY 13619

$229,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,242 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,711/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$471
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-320/mo
• Annual: $-3,843/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Carthage Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 348 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Middle School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #539 of 729 statewide, top 74%, 899 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 815 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $174k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.