463 Shadowrock Dr

Forsyth, MO 65653

$17,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,063/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax + insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $720/mo
• Annual: $8,638/yr
• Cap rate: 55.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 176.28%
• DSCR: 8.84
• 1% rule: 6.07%
• Cash to close: $4,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#220 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Forsyth R-III (town): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #78 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forsyth Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 462 students, 63% FRL); Forsyth Middle (math 47% / reading 54%, grade C, #64 of 391 statewide, top 17%, 343 students, 66% FRL); Forsyth High (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 404 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 55.7% vs local median 2.7% in Forsyth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.