93 & 95 Keith St

St. Augustine, FL 32084

$930,000D

7 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,388 sqft · Built 1930 · MultiFamily · Active · 270 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,898/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,877
• Tax + insurance: −$2,128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,659
• Net cashflow: $-766/mo
• Annual: $-9,189/yr
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $260,400

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $930k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-766 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $795k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $790k (15.1% below list).
• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($818k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $790k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ketterlinus Elementary School (math 74% / reading 75%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 402 students, 46% FRL); Sebastian Middle School (math 59% / reading 59%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 654 students, 42% FRL); St. Augustine High School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 1,784 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 20% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 636 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $470k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,898/mo this rent would consume 128% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 1748% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.